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While Major Floods and a Rapidly Changing Climate Threaten North Dakota, Its Congressman Opposes Curbs on Emissions

Published by Nick Sundt on Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:55

The National Weather Service said Tuesday (23 February 2010) that for the second consecutive year, North Dakota will see major flooding this Spring.  While dramatically curbing greenhouse gas emissions now will reduce the risk of much greater devastation later this century, North Dakota's lone Congressman opposes mandated emission reductions -- while supporting massive Federal support for flood relief and control.

The National Weather Service (NWS) said in a press release Tuesday (23 February 2010) that "for the second year in a row, weather conditions are setting the stage for another round of major spring flooding" along the Red River in North Dakota and Minnesota.  Furthermore, NWS said "historically high Devils Lake also poses significant flooding problems for northeastern North Dakota." 

Oxbow, ND, March 28, 2009 --Flooded farms and rural communities adjacent to the Red River of the North. Andrea Booher/FEMA
Oxbow, ND, March 28, 2009 --Flooded farms and rural communities adjacent to the Red River of the North. Andrea Booher/FEMA

The NWS reports that the Red River basin experienced above normal precipitation last Fall and that for the winter through January, precipitation has been 150-300 percent above normal. It said Fargo experienced a record 3.42 inches of precipitation (water equivalent) during December-January.  Because of the heavy precipitation and other factors, the NWS says:

Current long-range National Weather Service forecasts indicate about a 96 percent chance of major flooding in the Fargo, N.D., area and about 73 percent chance of major flooding in the Grand Forks area."

Conditions at the vast Devils Lake also are worrisome. In its "Devils Lake Outlook for Flood Potential" issued on 19 February, the NWS said that at Devils Lake:

"Fall precipitation was 125 to 150 percent of normal ... Precipitation during December was much higher than normal ... between 200 and 300 percent of the mean. In January precipitation was 150 to 300 percent of the mean ...Since February 1st ... the precipitation in the Devils Lake basin has been 300 to 500 percent of normal."

The precipitation extremes are helping to push the lake to record levels (see figure below).  The lake's levels have increased rapidly since 1940 and now are well above lake levels that characterized most of the 20th century. Water Surface Elevation, Devil's Lake near Devil's Lake, North Dakota

After it exceeded 1,446 feet above sea level (asl) in 1999, Devils Lake spilled into nearby Stump lake. By the end of September 2007, Stump Lake's level was equal to that of Devils Lake and they now are rising together.  Earlier this month, the National Weather Service said there was a 95% chance the lake will exceed the record levels reached in 2009, 1,450.7 feet asl. As of 25 February 2010, water levels at the lake were at 1450.10 feet above sea level -- about 7 inches short of last year's record. 

According to Tuesday's press release from the NWS, "Devils Lake has risen more than 25 feet over the past 17 years, costing nearly $1 billion in infrastructure improvements including development of a new water supply system and the construction of roads acting as dikes."  Meanwhile, the area of the lake has dramatically grown (see Devils Lake, North Dakota, Image of the Day from NASA's Earth Observatory, 14 February 2010).  The combined area of Devils and Stump Lakes has tripled from 54,267 acres in 1992 to 163,745 acres today

Should the lakes together reach 1,459 feet asl -- another 9 feet above current levels -- rising waters will spill into the Sheyenne River, a tributary of the Red River.  That has happened only a few times over the last 4,000 years. A USGS report concluded in 2008 that there was a 50% chance the lake would not exceed 1,450 feet asl anytime between 2008 and 2040 -- but just one year later (in 2009) it already had exceeded that level.  "The lakes could continue to rise above the natural outlet," the report acknowledged, "causing extensive additional flood damages in the basin and, in the event of an uncontrolled natural spill, downstream in the Red River of the North Basin." 

North Dakota's Climate Is Changing  

"I don't know whether it is global climate change or this is some very unusual weather pattern, but something is happening in my State, something that is dramatic and unusual and devastating to thousands of agricultural producers" said Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND) in a 5 December 2006 Floor Statement on Agriculture Disaster Assistance.  His statement was in response to the climate extremes afflicting the state:

"Irony of ironies, after the massive flooding of last year [2005], after the extended flooding in eastern North Dakota of the last 7 or 8 years [including Spring 2006], this year [2006] drought struck, the third worst drought, according to scientists, in our country's history. That is what happened this year. And so instead of headlines about flooding, this is the headline: ``Dakotas `epicenter' of a drought-stricken nation.''

Since then, North Dakota has continued to be whipsawed by weather extremes.  In 2007, the state was the subject of three Federal disaster declarations because of severe storms and flooding.  Last year, the state was hit by record Spring floods and by late December, state and federal disaster assistance for the year exceeded $150 million.

Fargo, ND, March 28, 2009. Photo by Patsy Lynch/FEMA
Fargo, ND, March 28, 2009. Photo by Patsy Lynch/FEMA

Likely spring floods this year, along with the state's recent experiences with weather extremes, raise questions about climate change.  Is North Dakota's climate changing?  The answer clearly is yes.  Since 1895, temperatures in North Dakota have increased an average of 0.26oF per decade, with the warming most pronounced during the winter (0.5oF per decade). 

Statewide annual precipitation trends over the same period are not as pronounced, but over recent decades there has been a clear increase in precipitation.  Since 1980, statewide annual precipitation has increased an average of 0.74 inches per decade, with a large part of that increase coming during the Spring months (March-May).  According to the 2008 USGS report:

"In about 1980, a large, abrupt, and highly significant increase in precipitation occurred in the Devils Lake Basin and elsewhere in the Northern Great Plains, and wetter-than-normal conditions have persisted through the present (2007). Although future precipitation is impossible to predict, paleoclimatic evidence and recent research on climate dynamics indicate the current wet conditions are not likely to end anytime soon." (Climate Simulation and Flood Risk Analysis for 2008-40 for Devils Lake, North Dakota)

At the same time, the state has seen an increase in extreme precipitation events.  From 1946 through 2006, there was an approximately 13% increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events in North Dakota (When It Rains, It Pours: Global Warming and the Rising Frequency of Extreme Precipitation in the United States). These include more frequent heavy snowfalls, such as the record snowfalls (for the date) Fargo and Grand Forks experienced on 23 January.

While North Dakota's climate is changing, and this change is increasingly driven by the buildup of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,  there are other factors that have influenced -- and will continued to influence -- the state's weather.  We know, for example, that over the very long term there have been relatively dry periods separated by wet periods in the Northern Great Plains (see Climate Simulation and Flood Risk Analysis for 2008-40 for Devils Lake, North Dakota).  However, such natural variability now is coupled to our own impacts on the climate.  North Dakota, along with the rest of the planet, has entered an era in which the weather will be increasingly distinct from what we've seen in the past.

What Responses Are Appropriate?

The immediate challenge for North Dakotans is responding to the floods that are likely this year, much as they responded to last year's floods.  FEMA announced in a press release on 18 February 2010 a series of town hall meetings in five North Dakota communities "to help citizens learn more about the 2010 flood outlook, flood insurance, and flood preparation.   Local, state and Federal governments are taking additional steps to respond to the imminent threat.  Among these are efforts to make sure emergency and disaster assistance is available as needed.

In the longer term there is a much wider range of actions that are required, ranging from changes in water and floodplain management to scientific assessments of climate change impacts and policy initiatives that slow the pace of climate change and better prepare the state for the disruptive impacts of climate variability and change.

In the video below, Amanda Staudt of the National Wildlife Federation, provides an overview of the connection between climate change and recent floods, including the Red River flooding of 2009.  She also describes some of the appropriate responses to the growing threat of floods, featuring efforts by the city of Grand Forks, North Dakota. 

At the end of 2009, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency concluded:

"Water resources across large areas of the country are at serious risk from climate change, with effects on water supplies, water quality, and adverse effects from extreme events such as floods and droughts. Even areas of the country where an increase in water flow is projected could face water resource problems from the supply and water quality problems associated with temperature increases and precipitation variability, as well as the increased risk of serious adverse effects from extreme events, such as floods and drought. The severity of risks and impacts is likely to increase over time with accumulating greenhouse gas concentrations and associated temperature increases and precipitation changes. "

EPA made that statement in its Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under the Clean Air Act, commonly referred to as its "endangerment finding," a document that constitutes the basis for the Federal government's planned regulations to curb greenhouse gas emissions.  Unless emissions are dramatically reduced in the U.S. and worldwide, the long term flood and drought impacts to North Dakota's farms and communities in the long-term will continue to mount.

State's Congressman Opposes Efforts to Slow Climate Change, While Pressing for Billions in Federal Flood Relief and Control

Yet North Dakota's Democratic Congressman Earl Pomeroy voted against comprehensive energy and climate legislation that passed the House last year.  And on 8 January 2010, he introduced H.R. 4396, the Save Our Energy Jobs Act, legislation which would prohibit EPA from regulating greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. Then on 1 February, he issued a statement opposing funding that EPA would need to execute provisions of the Clean Air Act that require EPA to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. In each instance, Pomeroy  said nothing of the disruptive impacts of climate change that already are being felt in North Dakota, and that will certainly have catastrophic consequences if emissions continue to grow unabated.

While opposing efforts to slow climate change, Pomeroy has shown great enthusiasm for Federal funding to help North Dakota cope with the growing impacts of climate variability and change.  After the devastating floods of 1997, he helped secure $1 billion in disaster assistance for North Dakota.  He subsequently helped secure $400 million for a flood control project in Grand Forks.  Among his top priorities submitted to the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee for inclusion in the upcoming Water Resources Development Act:  $1.337 billion for a flood control project for the Fargo-Moorhead metropolitan area.

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