Climate Change a Recruiting Tool for Terrorists?

According to scientists, no single event can be attributed to man-made climate change. Such is the case for the historic flooding in northwestern Pakistan. The region is experiencing the worst flooding in 80 years, states the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). However, according to Omar Baddour, chief of climate data management applications at the U.N. World Meteorological Organization, (as quoted in Reuters) “We will always have climate extremes. But it looks like climate change is exacerbating the intensity of the extremes." 

The monsoon season occurs in Pakistan every summer, but these rains are unusually heavy (see photos below). The extreme precipitation began in late July and continued for more than a week. There is no sign of relief as rain is expected to continue over most of Pakistan through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Scientists predict that climate change causes this type of intense rainfall to become more probable and frequent.

Dr. Jeff Masters puts it all in perspective in his Wunder Blog post today (10 Aug 2010) on Pakistan's Katrina:

"No single weather event can be attributed to climate change, but a warming climate does load the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased over the past 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, `These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios.' We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades." [emphasis added]

   Aug. 1, 2009

  July 31, 2010

Photos: Indus River in northwestern Pakistan during monsoon season in 2009 versus 2010. Images show the dramatic difference caused by torrential monsoon rains ©NASA 

These unusually heavy rains are wreaking havoc on a fragile country already weak from infrastructure deficiencies, warfare and Taliban insurgents. According to a recent (9 Aug. 2010) Washington Post article, “Flooding's devastation in Pakistan is seen as opportunity for Taliban,”

“…the overall impact of the flooding now tops that from the 2005 Kashmir earthquake -- a view echoed by international aid officials.

Although the quake killed far more people -- at least 73,000, compared with the 1,600 who have died in the floods -- Gillani [Pakistan’s Prime Minister] called the scale of physical damage "beyond imagination. . . . Our country has gone back several years."

Pakistan can ill afford that kind of regression as it battles a vicious insurgency that capitalizes on the government's failure to provide basic services.

Over the past year, Pakistan's army has succeeded in driving Taliban fighters out of key sanctuaries in South Waziristan and the Swat Valley. But the damage from the floods could jeopardize those gains, officials acknowledged, unless infrastructure is quickly rebuilt – an undertaking that will cost billions of dollars and will probably take years.”

The potential for climate to cause national security threats has caught the attention of major military institutions, including the Pentagon. The Pentagon’s Quadrennial Defense Review for 2010 states that, “[w]hile climate change alone does not cause conflict, it may act as an accelerant of instability or conflict, placing a burden to respond on civilian institutions and militaries around the world. In addition, extreme weather events may lead to increased demands for defense support to civil authorities for humanitarian assistance or disaster response both within the United States and overseas.”

The Pakistan flooding coupled with the state’s fragility is the precise combination military officials worry could cause security risks. A growing chorus of national security experts, retired generals, Iraq and Afghanistan veterans and national security entities (Pentagon & Navy) within the federal government are vocalizing the danger of America’s oil addiction and the growing security risks of a changing climate.

However, instability created by climate change may prove only part of the national security threat. Since the U.S. is the second largest emitter, behind China, of greenhouse gases and the only major industrialized country without binding national targets to limit emissions, placing blame for climate change is easy. The U.S. accounts for 20% of global carbon dioxide emissions (CO2 is the biggest culprit of man-made climate change) but only contains 5% of global population.

As countries start experiencing more extreme weather events, it’s easy to point a finger at the United States’ inaction along with its major role in the problem. As more and more countries recognize the connection to extreme weather and climate change, growing blame will fall on the U.S., along with anger and disdain. How long will it take before anti-American regimes, the Taliban and Al Qaeda start using climate change as a tool for generating American hatred, instilling blame for extreme weather events and recruiting victims who have lost their homes and livelihoods? Even if a single climatic event cannot be attributed to climate change, trends can be. Regardless, why would terrorists and anti-American regimes let precise facts obstruct a useful narrative?

Online Resources:

• Monitor's Editorial Board. "US and UN aid for Pakistan floods: It helps fight Taliban, effects of global warming" The Christian Science Monitor. 11 Aug. 2010.
• Flooding in Pakistan. Image of the Day (3 Aug 2010) from NASA’s Earth Observatory. 
• Doyle, Alister. "Analysis: Pakistan floods, Russia heat fit climate trend." Reuters. 9 Aug. 2010
• Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN). "Pakistan Floods Show No Sign of Let Up." 9 Aug. 2010
• Government of Pakistan, Pakistan Meteorological Department Flood Forecasting Division. 9 Aug. 2010
• Witte, Griff. "Flooding's devastation in Pakistan is seen as opportunity for Taliban." Washington Post, 9 Aug. 2010.
• VoteVets.org. "New Poll of Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans Finds Overwhelming Support For Clean Energy Climate Legislation." Press Release. 10 April 2010.
• U.S. Energy Information Administration. "International Energy Statistics." accessed 9 Aug. 2010
• U.S. Census Bureau. "U.S. & World Population Clocks." accessed 9 Aug. 2010

WWF Climate Blogs

• New Pentagon report declares climate change and energy as key issues “shaping the future security environment,” 1 Feb. 2010
• Climate Patriots (Video), 24 Feb. 2010
• 33 Retired General & Admirals Tell Congress: “Climate Change is making the World More Dangerous.” 5 may 2010
• U.S. Navy Climate Change Roadmap, 2 June 2010
• National Security section