High temperature records are tumbling, wildfires are multiplying and firefighting resources are stretched as Alaskan fire season kicks into high gear earlier than usual.  The conditions are part of an emerging trend: wildfires are serving as agents of change over Alaska's landscape as the state's climate rapidly changes.

We reported yesterday (29 May 2010) that Arctic sea ice had declined to record low levels for the date (see Arctic Sea Ice Extent & Volume at Record Lows for the Date).  Melting sea ice is not the only evidence of rising temperatures in the region: surface temperatures also are rising over land.  Among the consequences are earlier and more severe wildfire seasons, especially when warmer temperatures are accompanied by lower precipitation levels. The current fire situation in Alaska provides a sobering example of how such changes are stoking wildfires in northern latitudes. 

Eagle Trail Fire, 27 May 2300 hrs.  Photo:  AK TYPE 2 Kato Howard

The Alaska Interagency Coordination Center (AICC) reported yesterday:

"Low winter snowpack in north-central Alaska, warm spring temperatures, and a lack of precipitation has driven fuel conditions to historical maximum levels in Tok and Fairbanks. Current conditions create the potential for rapid fire spread rates, crown fires, and higher intensity fires. A high pressure weather system centered over Alaska exacerbates the existing conditions."

The National Weather Service this morning (30 May 2010) has issued "red flag" warnings for much of Alaska's interior, along with portions of the North Slope of the Alaska Range.  The warnings, which extend to late in the evening on 30 May, mean that "conditions are occurring or will occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous fires."  See NOAA's Alaska Fire Weather for the latest watches and warnings.

The AICC also said yesterday that  the current fire behavior and activity "is uncharacteristic for this time of year and is requiring a significant response statewide from Alaskan, Canadian and Lower-48 resources."  By late evening on 29 May, the last 5 available smokejumpers in Alaska were en route to a fire, emptying the smokejumper base in Fairbanks and bringing the total number of jumpers committed to fires to seventy.  The jumper base reported that none of the committed jumpers could be quickly demobilized from current fires to attack new fires.  With such "initial attack" firefighting resources constrained, fires will have more time to grow in size before firefighters arrive.

According to today's Situation Report from the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center (AICC), there are 85 fires burning in the state.  A total of 193 fires have burned 98,163.3 acres so far this year.  The AICC Morning Highlights today said:  "Alaska is experiencing unprecedented fire activity for May that is more characteristic of extreme July conditions."  It added:

"On a scale of 1-5, Alaska has now reached Preparedness Level 4. It means that multiple units are experiencing fire starts and there are several large, staffed fires. The probability of ignition is high, and conditions/ resistance to control are high to extreme, and weather conditions exist that promote fire growth. It also reflects the number of instate and out of state resources committed/required."

Above: Active Alaska fires as of 30 May 2010.  Source: Bureau of Land Management.

Climate Trends in Fairbanks

Climate trends in Fairbanks, where observations extend back a century, illustrate how conditions are rapidly changing for Alaska's interior.  According to A Century of Climate Change for Fairbanks, Alaska [PDF], by Gerd Wendler and Martha Shulski (Arctic, Vol.62, No 3, Sept 2009, pp 295–300), mean annual temperatures in Fairbanks rose 1.4oC from 1906 to 2006 -- compared to a global average increase of 0.8oC.  Spring is coming earlier and the first frost is later, so the growing season has increased 45% over the period -- "a substantial value and highly important for agriculture and forestry."  The earlier springs are bringing an earlier snowmelt.  They report that precipitation has declined 11% over the period, which "together with increasing temperatures, makes the occurrence of droughts and wildfires more likely."

The Spring thus far has been consistent with long term temperature trends.  Though March temperatures were close to normal, April -- with an average temperature 7.7oF above normal -- was the fourth warmest on record for Fairbanks.  With temperature 4.4oF above average through 29 May, this month too has been warm.  Temperatures on 26 and 29 May hit 80 degrees; and the 82oF recorded on 27 May broke the record.   Temperatures may get into the 80s again today.  The Associated Press reported on 29 May that on average, Fairbanks does not hit 80oF until 12 June. 

Most remarkable has been the low snowfall, low snowpack and early melt for 2009-2010.  As the figure below indicates, the snowpack was far below normal and with higher temperatures melted off early (in mid-March rather than early May), allowing for the fuels to dry and for the fire season to start early.

Above: Snowdepth in Fairbanks, Alaska, 2009-2010.  Source: The Alaska Climate Research Center at the University of Alaska Geophysical Research Institute.

Smoke Conditions and Health Impacts

Eagle Trail Fire and the Alaska Highway, 28 May 2300 hrs.  Photo: InciWeb.

Where there is fire, there is smoke.  NOAA reported yesterday in its daily smoke/dust report: 

"Numerous wildfires over Alaska continue to generate large amounts of smoke.  A thin ribbon of moderate to extremely dense smoke extends from northern Alaska, through the Yukon and into northwest portions of the Northwest Territories."

Responding to the conditions, the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) issued an Air Quality Advisory [PDF] on 29 May, saying:

"Communities near these fires will experience periods of smoke and
potentially poor air quality conditions throughout the weekend. For all of these locations, air quality will predominantly be good to moderate, with periods that are unhealthy. Air quality in communities near these fires may become very unhealthy at times"

The agency says that when air quality is unhealthy, "People with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should avoid prolonged exertion; everyone else should limit prolonged exertion."

DEC added:

"The warming and drying trend over the past week will continue this weekend which will lead to increased fire activity and increased smoke production. Areas of smoke will likely continue to impact the Interior into early next week.  Keep in mind that areas immediately downwind of any fire will experience hazardous levels of smoke. ...Smoke concentrations will be such that they could impact public health at times."

Alaska's Senator Murkowski Fiddles as Alaska Burns

Against this backdrop of widespread wildfires and smoke in her state, Senator Lisa Murkowski (Republican,  Alaska) is pushing forward with a Senate resolution she introduced that effectively vetoes the Environmental Protection Agency's finding last December that greenhouse gases threaten public health and welfare. 

In its finding, the EPA specifically noted a comprehensive assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that "reported with very high confidence that in North America, disturbances like wildfires are increasing and are likely to intensify in a warmer future with drier soils and longer growing seasons."  The EPA furthermore found that emissions from the wildfires "can adversely impact public health and welfare and are expected to increase due to climate change;" and that the emissions "can contribute to acute and chronic illnesses of the respiratory system, particularly in children, including pneumonia, upper respiratory diseases, asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease."

See our posting Alaska's Senator Murkowski Fiddles as Alaska Burns (25 May 2010) for details on her initiative and on climate change impacts on Alaska wildfires.

Online Resources:

The Alaska Climate Research Center.  At the University of Alaska Geophysical Research Institute.

UAFSMOKE.  Initiative supported by the Arctic Region Supercomputing Center and the Geophysical Institute of the University of Alaska Fairbanks in cooperation with colleagues from NOAA's Global System Division, Brazil's Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC/INPE), and the USFS Missoula Fire Sciences Lab.

Alaska Interagency Coordination Center:

• Morning Highlights [PDF].  Updated Daily.
• Alaska Wildland Fire Suppression Media Guide [PDF].  "The Media Guide provides a general overview to wildland fire response in Alaska, including agency relationships, personnel, terminology, and most importantly, sources for additional information regarding wildland fire and smoke."

Bureau of Land Management:

• Alaska Area 7 Day Significant Fire Potential.  Bureau of Land Management.

WWF Climate Change Blog:

• Alaska's Senator Murkowski Fiddles as Alaska Burns (25 May 2010)
• Elevated Wildfire Outlook for Interior Northwest and Alaska Reflects Natural Climate Variability and Long-term Climate Change, 8 May 2010.